Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $742,394$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{695,856.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 125.8)}}\) (asimptote \(695,856.1\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20,011$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,194.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(19,194.6\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $35,925$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,560$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,197.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 206.1)}}\) (asimptote \(14,197.0\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $102$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 219.7)}}\) (asimptote \(184.1\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $629$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $74,522$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,100$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,672$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $70,885$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,581.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 197.8)}}\) (asimptote \(89,581.8\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $970$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,151.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 185.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,151.0\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,817$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $270,626$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{597,081.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 248.6)}}\) (asimptote \(597,081.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,506$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,861.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 235.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,861.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $44,377$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $109,881$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,573.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 98.3)}}\) (asimptote \(103,573.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,405$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,058.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 104.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,058.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,814$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,635$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,387.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,387.0\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(60.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $73$ on 2020-11-11
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,102$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,195.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 108.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,195.5\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $85$ on 2020-11-11
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $46$ on 2020-11-11