Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Tunisia
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Egypt
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Senegal
  • Burkina Faso
  • Mozambique
  • Ethiopia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $742,394$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{695,856.1}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 125.8)}}\) (asimptote \(695,856.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $20,011$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,194.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(19,194.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $35,925$ on 2020-11-11

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,560$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,197.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 206.1)}}\) (asimptote \(14,197.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $102$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{184.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 219.7)}}\) (asimptote \(184.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $629$ on 2020-11-11

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $74,522$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,100$ on 2020-11-11

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,672$ on 2020-11-11

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $70,885$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,581.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 197.8)}}\) (asimptote \(89,581.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $970$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,151.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 185.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,151.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,817$ on 2020-11-11

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $270,626$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{597,081.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 248.6)}}\) (asimptote \(597,081.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,506$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,861.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 235.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,861.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,377$ on 2020-11-11

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,881$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,573.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 98.3)}}\) (asimptote \(103,573.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,405$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,058.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 104.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,058.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,814$ on 2020-11-11

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,635$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,387.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,387.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.1}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(60.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73$ on 2020-11-11

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,102$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,195.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 108.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,195.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $46$ on 2020-11-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Senegal recovered 99%
Burkina Faso recovered 85%
South Africa recovered 79%
Mozambique recovered 44%
Ethiopia recovered 19%

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,735$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,020.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,020.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $326$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{325.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 105.1)}}\) (asimptote \(325.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23$ on 2020-11-11

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,586$ on 2020-11-11

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56.7}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 24.1)}}\) (asimptote \(56.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $108$ on 2020-11-11

Mozambique⮸

Population $31,255,435$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,991$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,131.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 176.0)}}\) (asimptote \(19,131.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{145.8}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 121.5)}}\) (asimptote \(145.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,928$ on 2020-11-11

Ethiopia⮸

Population $114,963,588$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $100,727$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,301.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 134.3)}}\) (asimptote \(101,301.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,545$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,533.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 91.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,533.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,685$ on 2020-11-11